The Burnham bounce: Is Labour gaining ground against Farage’s Reform? 

Just more than two months into office, Andy Burnham was roundly praised for his first speech as prime minister at the Labour conference in Liverpool.

The Financial Times described his vision as “courageous”; the broadcaster Piers Morgan said the speech was “one of the best, and most powerfully delivered, by a British politician in a very long time”, and journalist Andrew Marr said he remembered seeing Tony Blair speak, but “Andy Burnham might be better”.

The new premier’s pitch focused on his plans for social welfare. And in recent months, the Labour Party has been enjoying what has been dubbed a “Burnham bounce”.

Some polling still reflects that bounce, especially in the race against the right-wing Reform UK party.

The Survation polling platform on Wednesday predicted Westminster’s voting intention for the Labour Party had risen two percentage points to 29 percent, while Reform UK fell one point to 23 percent.

“Very little” of Labour’s recovery is because of large numbers of Reform voters moving towards Labour, said Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University of London.

He told Al Jazeera left-wing and liberal voters are likely more supportive of Burnham’s direction.

While Burnham’s ability to move polling numbers is “significant”, the bounce is not “necessarily long-lasting”.

“The budget is going to be tough, the cost of living is still rising, and there is a long way to go before [an] election. Leaders matter, but so too does the government’s ability to restore prosperity and a sense that key public services are improving,” he said.

Since the Labour Party won the 2024 general election, it has been in constant competition with Reform UK, led by the telegenic Nigel Farage.

A YouGov poll last week found that if an election were called tomorrow, Labour would win the most seats but would face a hung parliament, with 241 seats. In contrast, the Conservatives would secure 130 and Reform UK 123.

But in reality, “voters will gather around the candidate best placed to beat Reform”, predicted Patrick Diamond, professor of public policy at Queen Mary University of London.

He argued that Farage’s party is losing appeal due to recent financial scandals while Burnham is “regaining ground on the left from the Greens”.

Burnham bounce

A YouGov poll published on Tuesday showed Reform UK slightly ahead of Labour, a sign of how fragile the Burnham bounce is.

At least 25 percent would vote for Reform UK, while 24 percent would choose Labour and 19 percent would choose the Conservatives, YouGov polling suggested. Only 12 percent would vote for the Liberal Democrats, 11 percent for the Greens, and 3 percent for the far-right Restore Britain party.

Reform UK’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, celebrated the survey, posting on X: “Burnham bounces down.”

During the 2024 general election, Labour won 412 seats out of 650, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.

However, Prime Minister Keir Starmer proved to be an unpopular leader while Reform UK gained more interest.

In July, Starmer resigned.

“Once Starmer left, Labour’s position recovered, but Burnham has boosted that further,” said Diamond. “The Labour brand remains reasonably popular – recent difficulties were more related to the unpopularity of Keir Starmer as PM and public antipathy to his government.”

Starmer was criticised over a range of issues from his position on Israel-Palestine and his policy U-turns to his lack of leadership qualities.

As Starmer’s popularity dropped, Farage took support from the Conservatives and, for the first time in Reform’s relatively brief political life, had polls predicting it could win an election.

A year ago, a More in Common poll of nearly 20,000 Britons showed how Reform could secure a 96-seat majority in parliament, taking 373 seats. In the May 2025 local elections, Reform outperformed expectations, winning 677 of the 1,637 seats up for grabs, or 41 percent of all seats available.

But in July, a More in Common poll found Reform UK’s chances of success had shrunk, with the party projected to win 293 seats.

Burnham’s promises

Burnham on Tuesday promised to “break with the direction of the past 40 years and put Britain on a new path”.

He said he would overturn former Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s 1980s reforms and give the public more control over housing, water and energy.

While potentially popular with some Labour supporters, Diamond said that Burnham needs to address people in the centre.

“Centrist voters who are broadly from the middle class are ones to watch. They often live in marginal seats,” he said.

“They like some Labour policies on public services and support measures to boost economic growth, including by moving closer to Europe. But they are also very sensitive about the issue of tax, believing they already pay enough and want the government to be more efficient. That is a big test for the Burnham administration,” he added.